states in play

Race to the Ranch

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Oct 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Race to the Ranch Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 10/14/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

Iowa pizza chain is a must-stop for GOP presidential candidates on the campaign trail

GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee talks to a crowd at the Pizza Ranch in Jefferson, Iowa. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

LAS VEGAS, Nevada – Have you ever gotten pushed around or hit with an elbow during the wee hours of Black Friday at your local shopping mall? Remember that feeling of hysteric masses, pushing and shoving, to get their hands on the hottest deals first?

Now imagine that elbow was a TV camera, and the shopper stampede a frantic press scrum that had grown men fretting for their bodily safety.

Welcome to the presidential debate spin room, where reporting is more like an NFL summer training camp drill.

One thing I learned tonight: the spin room is a contact sport. #NBC2016 #DemDebate
— Danny Freeman (@DannyEFreeman) October 14, 2015

During the Democratic presidential debate at the Wynn Las Vegas on Tuesday, the press was crammed into a filing room while the party loyals, donors and local activists watched the action unfold in the debate hall.

Only after CNN’s Anderson Cooper delivered the closing statement to his hailed two-hour interrogation of the five presidential hopefuls were the sheer forces of the press unleashed on the night’s protagonists. While the pri

The press filing center minutes before the debate. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

nt reporters were putting the final touches on their dispatches, and Twitter feeds started cooling off just a tad, TV crews geared up.

Now, in the spin room, it was their turn, overtime, with the ratings championship on the line. A whole array of campaign and party officials as well as the candidates themselves were waiting to give their five cents on the night’s performances. They had ample opportunity.

So.. This is the Spin Room right now. And the candidate is... Jim Webb. #madness #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/BrxLNrWBxf— Lars Gesing (@LarsGesing) October 14, 2015

Of course, for a man like Jim Webb, who has seen his share of war, what’s a few cameras? After all, he let the debate audience know what he does with his enemies in combat. But for a pacifist-leaning 74-year-old Bernie Sanders, the inexorable camera-and-mike-swinging portion of the presidential press corps may have been his most angst-inducing foe of the night, trumping even Hillary’s rare but pointed oratorical stabs on stage a few minutes earlier.

There were different shades of madness, however. Webb managed to get into the room first and was immediately swarmed. Once Bernie Sanders came to spin, reporters and camera crews could literally “Feel the Bern” – that’s how closely they beleaguered the Vermont senator.

Lincoln Chafee and Chloe Nguyen. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

And then there was Lincoln Chafee. After his dreadful debate performance, he almost had to ask reporters to ask questions a few minutes in. Chloe Nguyen of the Scholastic News Kids Press Corps smelled an opening and stepped up to the plate.

Also among the power lineup of debate spinners was Debbie Wassermann Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee. When she made rounds in the room before the debate, she sported a navy blue hat with a rather clear message: “America is already great.” (cc: The Donald Trump)

Hillary Clinton, by the way, was the only member of the candidate quintet not to show up and address reporters at all. Instead she let some of her campaign surrogates take a victory lap.

But as the Washington punditry and national reporters (including this one) quickly hailed Clinton as the night’s big winner after her forceful and combative performance on stage, another question came up.

Who put the spin on whom?

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The man who told Barack Obama he had won the presidency

Anonymous — Sun, 11 Oct 2015 06:00:00 +0000

The man who told Barack Obama he had won the presidency Anonymous (not verified) Sun, 10/11/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Steve Schale – Obama’s 2008 Florida campaign director

Steve Schale. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“In 2008 the Obama team agreed to start the last full campaign day in Florida. We went to Jacksonville. It was the morning when he found out his grandmother had passed away. Barack Obama gave probably one of the two or three worst speeches of his life. He forgot what county he was in, he was just reading off the teleprompter.

“Every day for the last 13 days of the campaign, we would get a daily update of how we were doing with the early votes. The morning of the last day, we got the final update of all the people who had voted. In terms of Republicans versus Democrats, we were ahead by about 400,000 Democrats, which was a larger margin than John Kerry lost Florida by. So basically, we had won. Unless something weird was going on, we had won. And if we had won Florida, then we had won.

“Every day I would email these numbers to Robert Gibbs, who was then the campaign press secretary, so he could talk to the reporters. That last day I told Gibbs, and he came up to me right after the event. Obama was walking around backstage like he had been hit with a frying pan. Gibbs goes, ‘Hey man, why don’t you cheer him up? Why don’t you tell him what you told me?’

“So we go back into this little room. I give Obama my phone and try to explain to him these numbers. He asked, ‘What does that mean?’ I told him it means we had won Florida. David Axelrod was in the room, and he said something like, ‘We won!’

“We walk out of the room, and Obama went, ‘You did a good job. Don’t screw it up!’

“That whole campaign, I never thought we were going to lose. I was convinced we had a good plan, a good staff. It was the only campaign I ever worked on where the plan we wrote literally played out exactly like we thought it would. I never doubted we were going to win even though we were down four or five points at one time.

“But after that, I felt so nervous I couldn’t talk. I just told this guy we had won Florida and that he is probably going to be president. I thought, ‘What if I screw this up? What if I was wrong?’ They threw me out of the war room on Election Day. I was a wreck. I was pacing in the parking lot of the hotel where our victory party was, thinking ‘Oh my God? What if we lose? He is always going to remember this guy who told him we were going to win.'”

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How third parties messed up the 2000 Flori-duh election

Anonymous — Tue, 06 Oct 2015 06:00:00 +0000

How third parties messed up the 2000 Flori-duh election Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 10/06/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Aubrey Jewett – Political Scientist, University of Central Florida

Aubrey Jewett with a voting punchcard ballot from the 2000 presidential election. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“Florida changed it’s constitution in 1998 in an attempt to be more fair to minor political parties. Our voters approved a proposal to make ballot access equal for all parties. Before that, minor parties had to jump through a lot more hoops, and it tended to keep them off the ballot. But when we leveled the playing field, one of the unforeseen consequences was that we had 10 presidential nominees on the general election ballot in Florida that year, including the Green Party with Ralph Nader and the Reform Party, which Pat Buchanan ran for.

“Our election supervisors in each of Florida’s 67 counties had to figure out how to list the candidates on the ballot. They came up with several innovative ways to do that. Most of our big, urban counties had a punch-card system, which was considered to be high-tech when it was adopted in the late 60s and early 70s but by 2000 was very low tech, cumbersome and created a lot of problems.

“Several supervisors of elections across the state began to list the candidates for president on one page and continued on the next page. Corrine Brown was running for re-election to Congress that year. She ran ads, ‘Vote for Gore, vote for Brown,’ tying the Democratic ticket together. Well, wouldn’t you know… Al Gore was listed on the first page in Duval County. But when you turned the page, there was another candidate running for president whose last name was Browne (Libertarian Harry Browne). So Duval County had a very high number of invalidated ballots from over-voting, which happens when you have more than one vote for a presidential candidate on a ballot. In Duval County, they had something like 20,000 such votes, and many of them voted for Gore on the front page and for Browne (!) on the second page.

“We had another example of creative placement in Palm Beach County. That was what was known as the butterfly ballot. Standard procedure says you should list all candidates on one page, from top to bottom. But in Palm Beach, the supervisor of elections thought, ‘I’ve got a lot of seniors and they may have vision problems. If I list all 10 candidates on one side, it is going to be awfully small font.’ What she came up with was she alternated lines between the left and the right side. Thousands of people then either punched for two candidates or at least thought they were voting for Al Gore. Instead they accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan.

“It all came about because of an attempt to be fair to third parties.”

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Presidential candidates: the house guests who won’t leave

Anonymous — Sat, 03 Oct 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Presidential candidates: the house guests who won’t leave Anonymous (not verified) Sat, 10/03/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Adam Smith – Political Editor, Tampa Bay Times

Adam Smith. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“2008 was a crazy cycle. Florida scheduled an early primary. But with so much emphasis on states such as Iowa, it was part of the Obama campaign’s strategy to get other candidates to pledge to not campaign in Florida, to basically boycott the Florida Democratic primary. It may have cost Hillary the election. And the Obama campaign since admitted that is was part of a strategy because they knew Hillary was going to be very strong in Florida – as a woman who had a lot of ties here.

I remember standing outside a fundraiser. Obama came here to raise money, but they had pledged to never talk to voters. It was just bizarre. I think Hillary agreed to the pledge because her view was, ‘If we don’t do it, every time we go to Iowa and New Hampshire, all the activists and all the reporters will say ‘You are snubbing Iowa and New Hampshire by not agreeing to this deal.” It was a stupid move. (Click here for more information on the Florida Democratic primary that year.)

“In the same cycle, on the Republican side, you had Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Giuliani had this view that he was going to completely blow off Iowa and New Hampshire and was going to bet all his money on Florida. He basically moved here, and he was winning for a long time. But people just got sick of him. He was like the house guest who wouldn’t leave. Charlie Christ, who was then a very popular Republican governor, had promised he was going to endorse Giuliani. Then he personally told Romney and Giuliani that he was going to stay neutral. Days before the election, he endorsed McCain.”

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Florida’s political geography is a roadway puzzle

Anonymous — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Florida’s political geography is a roadway puzzle Anonymous (not verified) Thu, 10/01/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Dario Moreno – Political Scientist, Florida International University

Dario Moreno. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“The Northern part of the state – along I-10 from Pensacola to Jacksonville – is basically South Alabama, very Southern, very conservative. The southern part of the state – Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach – is very liberal. That region has a lot of influence from the Northeast, from states such as New York, New Jersey. People are moving down here. They follow the I-95,

“And then the people on the southwest side of the state are very Republican and conservative. They came from Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. They followed the I-75 down.

“The I-4, which goes from Tampa Bay to Daytona, is really the swing area. it’s the central part of the state, and it is where most state elections are decided.”

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The Virginia cocktail party theory

Anonymous — Tue, 29 Sep 2015 06:00:00 +0000

The Virginia cocktail party theory Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 09/29/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) presidential campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Frank Leone – Attorney and Virginia DNC Member

Frank Leone. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“Larry Sabato was my major adviser at the University of Virginia. We talked about Virginia politics. He had the cocktail-party theory.

“Virginia is primarily a suburban state. Suburban voters like people who they would have at their cocktail parties. The example at that time, which was back in the 70s, was John Warner, our senator, who was married to Liz Taylor. So John Warner might come to your cocktail party and bring Liz Taylor. You definitely want Liz Taylor at your cocktail party.

“The Democrat was a guy named Andrew Miller, the attorney general. He was fine, but not very interesting.

“Henry Howell was the Democratic candidate who was running for governor in the 70s. He was really populist, he would talk really loud, he would spit and spill mustard on his tie. You don’t want him at your cocktail party. You want John Dalton, who was a lawyer from Richmond and a much more sedate guy who at least wouldn’t scare people.”

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Anecdotal Evidence, make-a-wish edition: What Pope Francis teaches us about curing gridlock

Anonymous — Wed, 23 Sep 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Anecdotal Evidence, make-a-wish edition: What Pope Francis teaches us about curing gridlock Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 09/23/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share usually personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be. But since everyone is talking about the Pope these days, we applied his principles to politics.

John Davis – North Carolina Political Commentator

John Davis. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“Everybody in Washington, D.C. – 435 members of the House, 100 senators and our president, they all believe they are principled people. We don’t need any more principled people in Washington, we need principled compromise. The whole problem is you got principled conservatives and principled liberals in separate corners of the room, refusing to talk to anybody.

“Government is the problem because government is made up of people who put ideological principles ahead of getting things done. You’ve got all these members from safe Republican districts and from safe Democratic districts who tell them, ‘You better not go up there and talk with the Republican. You better stick with your principles.’ So nothing get’s done, and everybody is mad. The very people complaining about nothing getting done are the people creating the problem with nothing getting done.

“How to fix it? A few years ago, it was almost like somewhere out of nowhere came this Argentine Jesuit priest and became Pope. And this guy starts saying: The church should be like a field hospital. We should not be asking people where they stand on abortion or same-sex marriage or women in the priesthood when they come to us. We should reach out and give mercy to people who are in need. This Pope is revolutionizing the world.

“Somebody needs to come along who has the ability to say, ‘There’s something greater than the church, and it’s mercy. And there is something greater than our individual ideals and priorities. A new greater good is needed in the United States. Someone needs to come along who is focused on one thing rather than 12 things. If I were running for president today, I would be a single-issue candidate: Fix the government. Because you are not fixing anything else – no entitlements, health care or education, job or the debt – until you fix the government. And you are not going to fix the government until people who don’t agree with each other start getting together and agree on principled compromise.

“The best way to describe principled compromise is what you do when you are get married. I like to say: Marriage is when two become one, and then you spend the rest of your life arguing about which one. That’s what principled compromise is: All of a sudden two families are stuck together for life.”

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Team Obama put the spin on North Carolina pollsters

Anonymous — Mon, 21 Sep 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Team Obama put the spin on North Carolina pollsters Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 09/21/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Kenneth Fernandez – Director Elon University Poll

Kenneth Fernandez. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“In September 2012 David Simas, the Obama campaign’s head of opinion research, came to Raleigh and invited all the pollsters in the state. We were wondering – why? Maybe it was to tell us not to give up on polling on this race?

“He basically said, ‘We are not giving up on North Carolina. We think North Carolina is still a battleground state. There are rumors that we are pulling money out of the state. That is not true. We created a tremendous grassroots network that is effective. We are not going to waste that.’

“He showed us how much money they spent on polling and how effective it was in 2008, and what they were seeing in North Carolina. We kept polling on the issue, and it was pretty close. But Romney won.

“It felt like, ‘Maybe they are losing the state, and they know it, and they don’t want journalists, political scientists and pollsters to sell that message?'”

“It felt a little bit like propaganda.”

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The politics of Shad Planking, then and now

Anonymous — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 06:00:00 +0000

The politics of Shad Planking, then and now Anonymous (not verified) Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Michael Thomas – Richmond-based Republican Consultant

Michael Thomas. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“Virginia is a very different state then what it was many years ago. I’ve seen reporters go ape over this event we have every spring, called the Shad Planking. It is an outdoor event put on by the Wakefield Ruritan Club. It started back in the 1930s (as a tribute to the start of the fishing season) as a Democrats-only thing (the event was an opportunity for Democratic party leaders to select the next governor).

“Now there are probably more Republicans there. It’s old Virginia. Politicians like to go and meet lots of people (For more information on the political history of Shad Planking, click here).

“But Virginia is not that anymore. People don’t gather once a year and somebody stands up and says, ‘This is the guy’ and it is all done. It doesn’t work that way any more. You go there and people fly a confederate flag on their house or have it on the license plate of their pickup truck. But that’s not Virginia.

“Virginia is two different states – Northern Virginia and the rest of Virginia. And the rest of Virginia is not all the same either. The misconception is to look at Virginia as the capital of the confederacy, a southern state. It is probably more southern than Maryland, but it is very different.”

[video:https://youtu.be/x8qtluaPVhw]

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Virginia says, ‘You are welcome, America.’

Anonymous — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 06:00:00 +0000

Virginia says, ‘You are welcome, America.’ Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 09/15/2015 - 00:00 Lars Gesing

In our Anecdotal Evidence column, movers and shakers share personal stories of how intriguing (and often odd) campaigning in their respective swing state can be.

Tucker Martin – GOP VA Consultant, Christie Super PAC Adviser

Tucker Martin. Photo: Lars Gesing/CU News Corps

“Virginia is probably the most tradition-bound state in the country. In many ways, living in Virginia is like living in a museum. (…) Virginians are very proud of their state. We are a very cocky people. There is that old saying, ‘North Carolina is the valley of humility between two mountains of conceit.’ I love that quote.

“Virginians have every reason to be kind of cocky. As we say, ‘You are welcome, America.’

“I can’t speak to it empirically or quantify it, but Virginians want to be proud of their state. They want to feel good about the people who lead this state. Virginians are inordinately proud that the University of Virginia is one of the top universities in the country. We are inordinately proud of our history and what we have given the country.

“There is a very substantive, serious streak (of voters). Even if you just moved here, you do get that there is something special about Virginia.

“I get how that strikes people in other states as kind of odd, but it is true. There is a lot of history here. It means something. It is a vein that goes through everything.”

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