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Former Congressman Mike Coffman sat in a crowded coffee shop in Aurora, Colorado. He waved to his past constituents, and potential new voters in the city that he’s attempting to become Mayor of. He sipped on a warm tea and remarked on his understanding of the historical trends that experts have assessed as an influential element in the outcome of his most recent political race.

He proved difficult to unseat in past congressional elections but met his match in 2018. Coffman and experts attribute historical trends as a significant factor in his congressional loss. He thinks the rise in social media and a decline in local journalism also played a role in the election outcome.

Coffman was well-known for seeming to adapt to the district he represented, Colorado House District Six. Following major demographic changes, he looked to embrace diverse communities that became more abundant.

According to Coffman, Aurora has a little over 370,000 residents and is among the most diverse cities in the United States. He learned Spanish to better understand and communicate with his large group of Spanish-speaking constituents and went to a number of community churches and events to maintain visibility among potential voters.

“I would come home every weekend,” he said. “I really had to be active in a very aggressive way because as a Republican in a Democratic-leaning district, that was just really a point in trying to make up for the difference was to be very visible.”

Coffman’s congressional career came to an end when he lost in the 2018 midterm election to his Democratic challenger Jason Crow. Coffman said he wished he had paid more attention to historical trends when he was running.

“I think in the last campaign, one big takeaway is you can’t defy political gravity. And what I mean by that are the laws of political physics,” he said. “People like to look at elections in isolation and not the historical trends.”

In order to maintain checks and balances, the public corrects the system by pushing against the majority party and electing members from the minority party, or in this case, the Democrats.

Roll Call Columnist David Winston wrote an in 2018 that outlined election trends and attributed the shifting waves the United States experiences to voters who identify as Independents. The shift in majority power usually comes down to which party can win the votes of the large Independent voting pool.

Elizabeth Skewes, University of Colorado journalism professor and department chair, attributed much of Coffman’s loss to the correction the public was trying to make. He got caught up in the anti-Trump wave that gained the Democrats control of the House of Representatives during the 2018 election cycle.

Coffman was attentive to his constituents, adapting to his swiftly changing district, but couldn’t counteract the successful national Democratic campaign. According to Skewes, Democrats recruited relatively young candidates, like Jason Crow, who had photogenic families and were able to practice politics from a grassroots level. They capitalized on the anti-Trump movement, sending the message that if the public voted in Democrats they could send President Trump a message because they didn’t have the chance to do it with a presidential election.

“I think he got caught in that,” she said. “Coffman’s district was always pretty tight, and he did a really good job. I just think he got stuck this time. I don’t think he did anything wrong, I just think the Democrats did something a little more right.”

Andrea Fields, Congressman Scott Tipton’s finance director, said she was surprised by how long it took the Democratic Party to unseat Coffman.

“They found every successful current and former state legislator within those boundaries to run against him, he still won because he is experienced and outworks all of his competitors,” she said. “The right political climate came along, the right competitor came along and all of the money was there. They [the Democrats] had focused all of their efforts in the state on regaining that seat for 10 years, they finally succeeded.”

Election night is characteristically a whirlwind for politicians and staffers. It results in numerous celebrations and heavy hearts. Coffman said the loss was fairly predictable but didn’t make it any less unfortunate.

“The election in 2018 was tough. Historically, when the same party picks up the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate and the White House, the American people push back and, with few historical exceptions, the House swings back the other way in what we call a  ‘wave’ election,” he said. “My district has been a Democrat-leaning district since it was redrawn in 2012. President Obama carried it by 5 points in 2012 and Clinton carried it by 9 points in 2016.”

Coffman ran his first campaign in the late 1980s. He claimed that campaign as his favorite because he was given the opportunity to become more involved in the community and work on his ground game, the tactic that involves heavy community outreach like going door-to-door and coffees with potential constituents.

He attributed the majority of his past success to hard work and campaign tactic. He said a successful campaign is comprised of a ground game, effective communication through all the platforms a candidate has access to and a message that really matters to the community.

In addition to the historical trends, Coffman blamed the change in local journalism for playing a role in his 2018 Congressional loss. There was a lack of reporting that made getting his message to the public much more difficult than it was in the past.

“The big change that I think is very sad is the mainstream media is not what it was,” he said. “The mainstream media was so important. And I think they really fairly covered races and in-depth races.”

The Rocky Mountain News and Denver Post were heavily involved with the candidates early in Coffman’s political career. He recalled participating in editorial interviews and trusting that the mainstream media would serve as a “relatively fair referee.” After the Rocky Mountain News closed and Denver Post’s resources decreased, the local journalism didn’t seem to meet Coffman’s expectations. The lack of coverage puts more pressure on the candidates to do the messaging themselves.

The increasing polarity of political journalism on larger platforms like CNN and the lack of coverage from local newspapers is leading to candidates’ uptake in social media usage and voters’ heavy reliance on television and social media ads, Coffman said.

Coffman thinks social media is a positive tool in the evolution of politics. As the mainstream media shrinks, campaigns need other ways to get a message out. The public relies more heavily on what candidates are saying now, even if it be through 30-second television ads. The issue with the prominence of personal messaging instead of going through the press presents itself in cost.

Carl Cannon, the Washington Bureau Chief of Real Clear Politics, said social media has encouraged people to become more partisan because the amount of clicks and follows serve as a type of currency for politicians and journalists alike. This form of currency leads to hostility between media and politicians because messaging becomes more about branding than getting out information that is essential to the public. He’s not sure if this is a temporary trend.

Coffman said the polarized political environment that has become a prevalent issue in the United States is a shame. It is difficult for individuals who less partisan to get involved in races or have a chance at winning because they are not backed by the major parties and have a difficult time funding their messaging and other campaign work.

“Races are much tougher today and involve a significantly higher level of spending by campaigns as well as outside groups trying to influence the outcome of an election,” he said. “When I started in politics, state legislative and local campaigns in the late 1980s were mostly about a candidate going door-to-door and involved some low dollar fundraising to support a targeted direct mail plan.”

The former congressman has been forced to actively adapt to the changing media landscape in order to run his campaigns successfully. He said he relies more heavily on his own messaging and community involvement because politics are not reported in a “straight forward”  manner anymore. He said he hopes it returns to the way he remembers it during his first campaign.

Coffman has announced his candidacy in the upcoming Aurora Mayoral election. The race will serve as an opportunity to become more invested in the community and work with the demographics that he became familiar with during his time as a congressman.

He said partisan politics will not play as large a role in this race as they did during his congressional election.

“Local elections are nonpartisan. In other words, they don't show partisan affiliations on the ballot while state and national races do,” he said. “Local races don't involve primaries where the ballot is limited to the nominees of their respective political parties.”

Coffman’s focus has shifted since losing the 2018 election. Campaigning on a national platform left him less time to focus on the ground game that he enjoys. However, he will have more time to focus on that in his upcoming race.